March 15, 2007

 

EU 2007-08 grain output estimate still up 9 percent on-year

 

 

European Union 2007-08 cereal production is projected to be 9 percent higher on the year at 284.9 million tonnes, according to the monthly analytical report from Strategie Grains Thursday.

 

This is nearly unchanged from last month's forecast of 284.8 million tonnes.

 

Strategie Grains made a small upward revision to its EU corn crop forecast due to a larger planted area in France and Romania. However, this was partially offset by a small reduction in the report's projection for EU durum output.

 

Wet weather has created some spring barley planting delays. Producers can make up time lost if soils dry out rapidly, but if the situation deteriorates, Strategie Grains said it might need to lower spring barley crop estimates.

 

Strategie Grains added that recent "wet and exceptionally mild" weather has been mostly favourable for winter cereal development.

 

"Nevertheless, the plants are and will remain at greater risk than normal given their advanced stage of development," said Strategie Grains, pointing to possible damage from frost, disease, and lodging.

 

The following are tables of Strategie Grains' EU-27 crop forecasts.

 

Output (million tonnes)

 

                 March       Feb       March

Cereal        2007-08    2007-08  2006-05    Change on-year
Soft wheat     127.4      127.4       116.3        +10 percent

Barley            60.6       60.6         55.6          +9 percent

Corn              57.2       56.8         52.9          +8 percent

Durum            8.1         8.3          8.0           +1 percent

Rye                8.1         8.1           6.5           +24 percent

Oats & other   23.6       23.6         21.8          +8 percent

TOTAL           284.9      284.8       261.1         +9 percent

 

Yields (tonnes/hectare)

                  March       Feb       March

Cereal       2007-08  2007-08    2006-05    Change on-year
Soft wheat      5.8        5.7          5.4           +7 percent

Barley            4.4        4.4          4.0           +8 percent

Corn              6.6        6.7          6.3            +6 percent

Durum           3.0        2.9          3.0            -2 percent

Rye                3.2       3.2          2.8            +14 percent

Oats & other   3.3        3.3          3.0            +10 percent

AVERAGE       5.0        5.0          4.6            +7 percent

 

Area sown (million hectares)

                   March       Feb       March

Cereal        2007-08  2007-08   2006-05    Change on-year

Soft wheat     22.1         22.2        21.7          +2 percent

Barley           13.9         13.9         13.8         +1 percent

Corn              8.6          8.5          8.4            +2 percent

Durum           2.7          2.9          2.7            +3 percent

Rye               2.5           2.5          2.3           +9 percent

Oats & other   7.2          7.2          7.4            -2 percent

TOTAL           57.2        57.2         56.2          +2 percent