March 15, 2007

Russian 2007 grain harvest seen to hit at 80 million tonnes
 

 

Russia is likely to harvest 78 to 80 million tonnes of grain this year, compared to 78.6 million in 2006, with a bigger winter crop likely to offset a lower spring crop, a leading Russian analyst said on Wednesday (March 14).

 

Andrei Sizov Sr, president and CEO of Russian securities firm SovEcon said the harvest will permit Russia to cover all its domestic needs and its exports are likely to be at least equal to the 12 million tonnes that the country expects to ship in the current 2006/07 crop year.

 

Sizov said he expected lower winter-kill losses of grain this year than in 2006, but spring grain output could decline.

 

SovEcon estimated the winter grain area on which grain would be lost at just 1.4 million hectares this season, equal to half of the 2.8 million hectares on which harsh weather destroyed grains last season.

 

It estimated the area sown with winter grains for the 2007 harvest to have declined to 14.3 million hectares from 14.5 million a year ago. Wheat accounted for 79 percent of the total area, rye for 17 percent and barley for 4 percent.

 

Last year, an increase in the spring grains output compensated high winter kill-losses, which permitted the country to raise output to 78.6 million tonnes from 78.2 million in 2005.

 

Sisov noted weather conditions might be unfavourable for spring grains this year as he expects crop output will be 44 to 47 million tonnes compared to 49 million tonnes last year.

 

He added that SovEcon expected the area sown with spring grains to remain unchanged, but farmers in some regions could sow more rapeseed and corn this year at the expense of barley.

 

Sizov said that SovEcon had increased its estimate of grain exports in the current 2006/07 crop year started in July after obtaining the final official crop statistics data, which were slightly higher than the preliminary December 2006 figures.

 

He said the current estimate of total grain exports in 2006/07 was raised by 0.4 million tonnes to 12.0 million, compared with 12.6 million in the 2005/06 season.

 

The wheat exports estimate was raised to 10.0 million from 9.6 million, compared to 10.6 milion a year ago, barley exports cut to 1.75 million from 2.3 million (1.7 million in 2005/06). Sizov added that SovEcon now expected Russia's corn exports to double to some 100,000 tonnes this year.