March 14, 2013

Growth of EU poultry meat output to end in 2014

The long-running growth of EU poultry meat output is expected to conclude in 2014, at an anticipated drop of 0.7%, according to a European Commission food market data report.

Brussels noted that higher feed prices have forced up poultry meat prices to a rise of 9% against a five-year average. With an "expected recovery in pig and beef production putting pressure on poultry meat", it said "the latter's production [is] expected to retreat…"

EU poultry meat exports would also fall next year, declining by 0.6%, said the report, which added that imports would rise 0.4%.

However, the Commission added that "it could reflect once again the capacity of poultry production to adjust more rapidly to changes in the meat supply and demand."

The switch follows a series of favourable years for the EU poultry industry, with production increasing 4.5% in 2010 and by around 2% for each successive year till 2013.

By contrast, 2014 should be a strong year for the EU beef, veal and pork sectors, said the Commission. While beef and veal production is forecast to shrink slightly this year (-0.5%), the cattle herd in Poland increased by 0.4% in 2012, with very small falls in numbers elsewhere. "Thus, the declining trend in production could be reversed in 2014, when beef is likely to recover by 1.5%," said the Commission report.

After two consecutive years of declining pork production, a 0.9% recovery is predicted for 2014 "due to productivity gain in the sow herd and expected lower feed costs", said Brussels.

EU beef exports are expected to weaken in 2014, because of a strengthening euro. The Commission's insistence on the implementation of EU pig welfare laws could reduce pork production this year. Currently, around 80% of the sow herd complies with EU animal welfare requirements. The Commission is threatening legal action if standards are not raised, thus driving up producer costs.

As for sheep and goat production, the Commission predicts a continuing fall: a 1.6% drop this year and 3.5% in 2014. This, including a recovery in New Zealand production, would generate more sheep and goat meat imports in 2013 - a rise of 4%, said the report.