March 14, 2008

 

CBOT Soy Review on Thursday: Higher; bounce on inflation buys, demand

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended higher Thursday, continuing to bounce from a recent sell-off on inflationary buying concerns and underlying demand.

 

March soybeans ended 8 cents higher at US$13.87, May soybeans settled 7 3/4 cents higher at US$14.02 3/4, July soybeans finished 8 1/4 cents higher at US$14.18 3/4 and November soybeans ended 3 1/4 cents higher at US$13.20 1/2. May soymeal settled US$5.50 higher at US$356.00 per short tonne. May soyoil finished 32 points higher at 62.56 cents per pound.

 

Speculative buying was featured in the day's gains, with supportive advances in outside markets providing a boost for prices for most of the day, with higher-than-expected weekly export sales in the soy products aiding the gains as well, analysts said.

 

The market had a delayed reaction to weakness in the U.S. dollar and record high price movements in petroleum oil, as it has virtually ignored the last US$10 worth of gains in crude oil, said Anne Frick senior oilseed analyst with Prudential Bache Commodities in New York.

 

The inflation concerns buoyed prices, with a little uncertainty tied to new crop planting intentions, and ahead of the release of private acreage estimates adding support to prices, she added.

 

Weakness in the U.S. dollar served as the catalyst to generate broad-based buying in commodities in general, traders said. This continued until a late retreat off earlier highs in crude oil and gold futures triggered light profit taking to trim gains, traders added.

 

April crude oil and gold futures each rose to new record intraday highs Thursday, rising to US$111.00 a barrel and US$1,000 per ounce respectfully. Both markets trimmed their gains over the course of the session.

 

On tap for Friday, the National Oilseed Processors Association's monthly soybean crush report on the February soybean crush is scheduled to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT). The soybean crush is expected to decline to near 140.3 million bushels from the previous report, according to a survey of industry analysts. Estimates for the report ranged from as low as 137.7 million bushels to as high as 142.0 million bushels. NOPA soyoil stocks in February are expected to decline near 2.797 billion pounds, down from the 2.818 billion pounds reported for January. Estimates ranged from as low as 2.670 billion pounds to as high as 3.100 billion pounds.

 

In pit trades, speculative fund buying was estimated at 3,000 lots.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

Soyoil futures ended higher, but well off earlier highs. The market's upside gains were bolstered by a record high rise in crude oil futures, weakness in the U.S. dollar and strong weekly export sales. The supportive influences propelled futures to new highs for the week, but once active contract failed to challenge overhead resistance and crude oil retreated from earlier highs, profit taking emerged to trim advances, analysts said.

 

Soymeal futures ended higher across the board, supported by late oil/meal spread unwinding, higher-than-expected weekly export sales, and outside market influences, traders said.

 

U.S. Department of Agriculture reported soy meal sales were a net 149,900 tonnes, above trade estimates that ranged from 25,000 to 75,000 tonnes. Soy oil commitments were 29,100 metric tonnes, above trade estimates of 5,000 to 20,000 tonnes.

 

May oil share ended at 46.77% and the May crush ended at 68 1/2 cents.

 

In soymeal trades, speculative fund buying was estimated at 2,000 lots.

 

In soyoil trades, speculative fund buying was estimated at 2,000 lots.