March 14, 2005

Brazilian soy complex exports in 2005 seen falling 13.4 percent

The Brazilian Oilseeds Association (Abiove) has projected the country's soy complex export revenue in 2005 to total $8.7 billion, falling 13.4 percent on the $10.04 billion of 2004.

Abiove had earlier forecast a $9.1 billion soy complex export revenue for 2005 on March 2.

A continued low for international prices of these commodities (soy beans, meal and oil) had contributed to the lower forecast, and Brazil is still expected to export a larger volume in 2005 than in 2004.

However, the latest reduction did also factor a drop in initially-forecast production for this year.

Soybean export revenue in 2005 is forecast at $4.68 billion, down 13.4 percent on 2004. The figure is based on an average price of $220/tonne (-21 percent) and exports of 21.3 million tonnes (+10.6 percent).

Soy meal exports are forecast at $2.72 billion, down 16.8 percent on 2004. The figure is based on an average price of $185/tonne (-18 percent) and exports of 14.7 million tonnes (+1.5 percent).

Soy oil export revenue in 2005 is forecast at $1.29 billion, down 6.2 percent on 2004. The figure is based on an average price of $480/tonne (-12 percent) and exports of 2.7 million tonnes (+7.3 percent).