March 13, 2013

 

US wheat carryover to rise 4% by Jun 2013

 

     

The carryover of US wheat is projected at 716 million bushels for June 1 2013, a rise of 4%, from 691 million bushels as the February projection, due to a projected 25-million-bushel decrease in 2012-13 exports, according to the USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

 

"Continuing strong competition, particularly from EU-27 and FSU-12, further reduce prospects for US wheat shipments," the USDA said. "Projected exports for hard red winter wheat are lowered 25 million bushels." The USDA also lowered projected white wheat exports by 10 million bushels and hard red spring by five million bushels, but raised soft red winter exports by 15 million bushels.

 

The USDA 2013 wheat carryover was slightly above the average expected by the trade that was near 713 million bushels. Wheat futures prices traded mostly lower in Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis immediately after the report.

 

Except for the decrease in exports, other projected supply and use numbers were unchanged for 2012-13. The average price of wheat was projected at US$7.65-US$7.95 a bushel, down from US$7.70-US$8.10 projected in February but still above US$7.24 in 2011-12.

 

US wheat production was estimated at 2.269 billion bushels in 2012, unchanged from February and up 270 million bushels, or 14%, from 1.9 billion bushels in 2012. Imports were unchanged from February at 130 million bushels but up 18 million bushels from 2011-12. Total wheat supply was projected at 3.142 billion bushels, unchanged from February but up 168 million bushels, or 6%, from 2.974 billion bushels in 2011-12.

 

Feed and residual use was projected at 375 million bushels, unchanged from February but up 211 million bushels, or 129%, from 164 million bushels in 2011-12. Seed use was projected at 75 million bushels, unchanged from February but down one million bushels from 2011-12.

 

The USDA projected domestic food use of US wheat in 2012-13 at 950 million bushels, unchanged from February but up nine million bushels, or 1%, from 941 million bushels in 2011-12.

 

Total domestic use was projected at 1.4 billion bushels, unchanged from February and up 218 million bushels, or 18%, from 1.18 billion bushels in 2011-12.

 

Exports of US wheat for 2012-13 were projected at 1.025 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels, or 2%, from both February and 2011-12.

 

Total use of wheat in 2012-13 was projected at 2.425 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels from 2.45 billion bushels in February but up 194 million bushels, or 9%, from 2.231 billion bushels last year.

 

The USDA projected June 1, 2013, carryover of hard winter wheat at 332 million bushels, up 28 million bushels from February and up 15 million bushels from 317 million bushels in 2012. Exports were projected at 400 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from February, with total supply, including imports, up three million bushels at 1.339 billion bushels.

 

Soft red winter wheat carryover was projected at 118 million bushels, down 15 million bushels from February and down 67 million bushels from 185 million bushels in 2012. Exports were projected at 200 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from last year.

 

Hard spring wheat carryover was projected at 180 million bushels, up five million bushels from February and up 29 million bushels from 151 million bushels in 2012. Exports were projected at 225 million bushels, down five million bushels from February.

 

White wheat carryover was projected at 51 million bushels, up nine million bushels from February but down 13 million bushels from 2012. Exports were projected at 175 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from February, and total supply was reduced one million bushels to 331 million bushels.