March 13, 2012

US raises 2012 broiler output estimate

USDA revised up its 2012 broiler production forecast to 36.3 billion pounds from 36.1 billion pounds a month ago, based on January production data and stronger forecast prices.

The department now projects 2012 broiler prices at US$0.85 to US$0.90 per pound, up from US$0.82 to US$0.87 per pound forecast a month ago.

USDA also boosted its beef, broiler, turkey, soy and soymeal price forecasts in its World Agricultural Supply Demand Estimates report.

It raised turkey production for 2012 to 5.91 billion pounds from 5.85 billion forecast a month ago. It boosted average turkey prices to a range of US$1.03 to US$1.09 per pound from last month's forecast of US$1 to US$1.07 per pound.

For beef, production was lowered from last month. Steer and heifer slaughter is forecast lower, but is partly offset by higher expected cow slaughter. Early year carcass weights were raised due to mild weather in much of the country.

Cattle price forecasts for 2012 were raised from last month. Steers (all grades) are now forecast at US$124 to US$131 per hundredweight, up from US$121 to US$129 per hundredweight a month ago, reflecting tightening fed cattle supplies.

The hog price and pork production forecasts remain unchanged.

USDA forecast average soy prices at US$11.40 to US$12.60, up from a range of US$11.10 to US$12.30 a month ago. It raised soymeal prices to a range of US$310 to US$340 per tonnes from US$290 to US$320 per ton a month ago. The agency reduced its forecasts of both the Brazilian and Argentine soy crops.

Corn ending stocks were forecast at 801 million bushels, which was above the consensus analysts' forecast of 784 million bushels, making the report bearish for corn prices, according to Deutsche Bank analyst, Christina McGlone.

USDA is now predicting US corn prices will average US$5.90 to US$6.50 in the marketing year that began last September, compared to a range of US$5.80 to US$6.60 a month ago.