March 13, 2012

China's 2012 soy imports may rise 7.7%

The State Administration of Grain said that China's soy imports may climb 7.7% this year to a record on growing demand.

Imports for the year ending December 31 may gain to 56 million tonnes from 52 million tonnes last year, Nie Zhenbang, director of the country's top grain manager, said in speech to members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in Beijing.

Increased buying may further spur a 10% rally in prices this year. Imports by China doubled in 2005-11 as rising incomes and urbanisation drove demand for meat, poultry and dairy.

China's shrinking land and water resources are testing its ability to maintain grain self-sufficiency, Nie said in the meeting held March 10. Like crude oil, its dependency on overseas soy has exceeded 50% and "it's questionable whether such high dependency on imports is sustainable," Nie said.

Imports of soy in the marketing October 1-September 30 may reach 55 million tonnes, the USDA forecast March 9. China's current annual imports of soy and cotton, of which it is also the largest buyer, would have taken 700 million mu of land to produce, according to Nie. In 2011 China's grain planting totalled 1.66 billion mu, data by the Ministry of Agriculture show.