March 13, 2009

European Union wheat production in 2009-10 is forecast at 130.7 million tonnes, down from February's estimate of 132.2 million tonnes and down 7 percent on the year, according to Strategie Grains' latest figures published Thursday (March 12).

 

The reduced estimate is the result of lower-than-expected plantings in Spain, France and the UK, the analytical firm said.

 

Total grain production in 2009-10 was also revised down slightly on the month to 294.5 million tonnes, a 5 percent fall compared with 311.6 million tonnes in 2008-09.

 

European Union 2009-10 barley production was reduced to 63.1 million tonnes, from February's estimate of 63.5 million tonnes and down 4 percent on the year.

 

Corn production in 2009-10 was revised up to 58.4 million tonnes, from last month's forecast of 57.8 million tonnes - although this figure is subject to change as corn plantings won't begin for several weeks, the report said.

 

European Union closing stocks for June 2009 are forecast at 16.8 million tonnes, down from February's estimate of 17.1 million tonnes, but still "heavy" enough to be bearish for old crop prices, the firm said.

 

"The premium on new crop over old crop prices is beginning to shrink," the report said. "If this movement continues - which should be the case if weather events do not impact negatively the crops - then downward pressure on old crop prices will intensify."