China think tank sees lower '09 grain output; first fall in six years

 

 

The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre said Friday (March 13) it expects the country's output of major grains in 2009 to be lower than last year, forecasting the first decline in six years.

 

 

The Centre expects corn output in 2009 to be 163 million tonnes, down 1.5 percent despite a slight increase in acreage, while rice output is forecast almost unchanged at 193 million tonnes.

 

It didn't provide a reason for the possible fall in corn output.

 

Soy output is likely to fall 3.2 percent to 15 million tonnes on a decline in acreage of 3.7 percent, while rapeseed output may rise 10.2 percent to 13 million tonnes on increased acreage, according to the Centre's report.

 

China's grain output in 2008 totalled 528.5 million tonnes, up 5.4 percent for a fifth consecutive increase.

 

"2009 could be the most difficult year in China's economic development since the new century started, and a very tough year for developing the good trend in agriculture and the rural areas," said CNGOIC.

 

The report, the Centre's first forecast for crop acreage and output in 2009, is based on a survey of farmers' willingness to plant in some provinces and the assumption that weather will generally be normal, it said.

 

CNGOIC said it will update its forecasts in a report in May, based on actual planting acreage and growth trends.

 

In the report, the Centre also lowered its earlier estimate for 2008 soy output by 1 million tonnes and hiked its estimate of the 2008 rapeseed crop by 300,000 tonnes.