China '09 pork production seen to rise

China's pork production will continue rising in 2009 to 48.8 million tonnes, though higher pork production and lower prices will reduce 2009 pork imports by nearly half to 300,000 tonnes, according to a US Department of Agriculture attache report posted Thursday (March 12) on the Foreign Agricultural Services Web site.

China's 2009 beef production is expected to decline two percent to six million tonnes, as low beef producer returns dampen growth. Post forecasts China's breeding cow imports will rise seven percent to 16,000 head, fuelled by genetic improvement efforts in the dairy sector. China's live swine imports are expected to fall 25 percent from sharply higher levels in 2008 to under 9,000 head.

FAS Beijing (Post) forecasts continued steady growth in China's total meat production in 2009, rising four percent to 75.4 million tonnes. Pork production is expected to approach 50 million tonnes, as producers continue to recover from a devastating outbreak of blue ear disease in 2007. Rising domestic pork shipments have been fuelled by direct government subsidies to quickly stimulate production and reduce consumer pork prices.

Post forecasts China's beef production in 2009 will decline two percent to 6 million tonnes, as low beef producer returns dampen beef cow production. China maintains a ban on US bovine products, including beef and live cattle due to BSE-related restrictions. Post expects China's 2009 breeding cattle imports to increase by seven percent to 16,000 head as a result of China's stepped up efforts to improve dairy genetics. Post forecasts 2009 Chinese direct imports of beef will decrease by 10 percent to 9,000 MT, primarily due to slow sales of high-end products. Significantly higher quantities of imported beef will continue to move through gray channels. Post believes China's live cattle and beef exports in 2009 to decline by nine and 12 percent to 30,000 head and 52,000 tonnes respectively due to an impact of world-wide financial crisis.

Post forecasts China's pork production in 2009 will rise by four percent to 48.7 million tonnes (CWE). Lower pork prices will fuel higher consumer pork demand compared to 2008 levels. China's breeding swine imports are expected to decline 25 percent from last year's record imports to 9,000 head as lower prices hinder growth in piglet and fattening swine placement. Post forecasts China's 2009 live swine exports to rise three percent to 1.7 million head. Post forecasts China's 2009 pork exports to decrease by six percent to 210,000 tonnes due to weak demand from export markets impacted by the world financial crisis.

In January 2009, seven Chinese government agencies announced a swine price alert system and subsidy program designed to ensure pork producers earn sufficient returns as prices fall and/or input costs rise. This is the first time government agencies have joined forces to monitor pork producer returns and ensure farm-level incentives are maintained, underscoring the importance the government is placing on providing stable and sufficient pork supplies.