March 13, 2009

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are seen starting Friday's day session higher, buoyed by outside market support in the absence of fresh fundamental news.

 

CBOT soybean futures are called 4 cents to 6 cents higher.

 

In overnight electronic trading, March soybeans finished 1 cent lower at US$8.98 while May soybeans were 6 cents higher at US$8.88. May soymeal was US$1.70 higher at US$278.20 per short tonne and May soyoil ended 7 points higher at 30.45 cents per pound.

 

The market is expected to "continue dancing to the tune of outside markets," as traders remain focused on the broader economic picture, said Vic Lespinasse, analyst with Grainsanalyst.com.

 

A quiet news front will keep the macro markets in focus, with firmer stock index futures, crude oil and early weakness in the U.S. dollar index laying the groundwork for prices to push higher, analysts said.

 

However, cautious activity is expected to linger, and any sign of weakness will potentially trigger pre-weekend position squaring.

 

Looking at technical charts, the next upside price objective for May soybeans is to push and close prices back above psychological resistance at US$9.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of US$8.38 1/4 a bushel.

 

First resistance for May soybeans is seen at Thursday's high of US$8.84 and then at this week's high of US$8.95. First support is seen at US$8.75 and then at Thursday's low of US$8.59 1/4.

 

U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Friday that private exporters reported the sale of 120,000 metric tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2008-09 marketing year.

 

Friday is the last trading day for March futures, with the contracts expiring at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

 

March soybean deliveries totaled 42 lots. The house account at Tenco was the primary issuer of 25 lots, stoppers scattered among various firms. The last trade date assigned was March 4.

 

March soyoil deliveries totaled 666 lots. Issuers and stoppers were scattered among various commission houses. The last trade date assigned was March 12.

 

March soymeal deliveries totaled 30 lots. The house account at ADM Investor Services stopped all 30 lots. The last trade date assigned was March 3.

 

In overseas markets, China's soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled higher Friday, tracking the rise in CBOT soybeans and crude oil prices Thursday. The benchmark September 2009 soybean contract settled RMB16 a metric tonne.

 

Cash soybean prices in China's major producing areas were slightly lower in the week ended Friday as some processing plants stopped purchases due to weakening profits.

 

Meanwhile, a shortfall in China's soybean supply relative to demand has further expanded while the supply of corn and wheat has exceeded demand, according to a senior grain official.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rose Friday as tightening palm oil stocks kept concern that CPO prices may fall at bay, trade participants said. The benchmark May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR52 higher at MYR1,972 a metric tonne.