March 13, 2007

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Tuesday: Up 1-2 cents on e-CBOT amid quiet news front

 

 

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade are seen starting Tuesday's day session higher, taking its cue from overnight strength amid the absence of fresh fundamental news.

 

Soybean futures are called to open 1 to 2 cents higher.

 

In e-CBOT trade, March was 1 3/4-cent higher at US$7.54 per bushel, May was 2 1/4 cents higher at US$7.67 1/4 and November soybeans were 2 1/4 cents higher at US$8.06 1/4.

 

A quiet news front overnight have analysts anticipating soybeans will follow through on Monday's gains, with speculation over how many U.S. soybean acres are lost to corn in 2007 providing underlying support.

 

Technically inspired activity is seen as a featured attraction, with soybean/corn spreading expected as the market attempts to make an effort to buy some acreage, analysts added. Otherwise, the market has little news to direct prices, with traders taking a cautious approach as they look forward to the March 30 planting intentions report.

 

A technical analyst said market bulls have regained some good upside technical momentum. The market would gain better fresh upside technical momentum by filling on the upside last week's downside price gaps on the daily bar chart. That means pushing prices back to US$7.93 1/2 basis May futures. The next downside price objective is closing prices below solid support at this month's low of US$7.39 1/2.

 

First resistance for May soybeans is seen at Monday's high of US$7.69 and then at US$7.77 1/2, which is the top of one recent downside price gap on the daily bar chart. First support is seen at Monday's low of US$7.57 and then at US$7.50.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix Weather Service forecast said there are no significant weather concerns for the mature crops and harvests in northern Brazil. Rainfall in Parana may lead to harvest delays early this week, while rainfall in Rio Grande Do Sul favors late filling soybeans.

 

In deliveries, a total of 29 delivery notices were posted against the March soybean future. The last trade date assigned was March 9. Issuers and stoppers were scattered among firms. Fifty seven delivery notices were posted against the March soyoil future. The last trade date assigned was March 8. A customer account at RJ O'Brien issued 53 lots, with the house accounts at Term Commodities and ADM Investor Services each stoppers of 33 and 13 lots respectively. A total of 23 delivery notices were posted against March soymeal. The last trade date assigned was March 9. Issuers and stoppers were scattered among firms.

 

In other news, the Korea Trade Commission said cheap soybean oil imports from Argentina and the U.S. have hurt the local industry and vowed to proceed with an ongoing antidumping investigation, the commerce ministry said Tuesday. South Korea launched the investigation late last year and will continue to probe for another three months.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled mostly higher Tuesday on the heels of Monday's gains in CBOT soybean futures. The benchmark September 2007 contract settled RMB12 higher at RMB3,217 a metric tonne, after trading between RMB3,213 and RMB3,223/tonne.