March 12, 2008

USDA again cuts wheat end stocks forecast, raises exports

The USDA on Wednesday (March 12, 2008) again lowered its forecast for Tuesday (March 11, 2008) wheat ending stocks in the 2007-08 marketing year and raised its export prediction.

The USDA, in the March release of its monthly supply and demand report, said despite record wheat prices "export commitments for wheat continue to accumulate" and that is "raising prospects for higher exports of hard red winter, hard red spring and durum wheat."

The new wheat ending stocks forecast is 242 million bushels, a 30-million-bushel drop from the USDA's February forecast of 272 million bushels. The January forecast was for 292 million bushels.

The wheat stocks-to-use ratio has now dropped to 10 percent, down from 12 percent, the USDA said.

The expected drop in ending stocks, the USDA said, is based on "higher projected food use and exports," according to the monthly report.

The USDA "food use" forecast was raised Wednesday (March 12, 2008) by 5 million bushels and the export forecast was raised by 25 million bushels. The new 2007-08 forecast for domestic wheat use in food production is 950 million bushels, up from the February forecast of 945 million bushels.

Wheat exports are now expected to reach 1.225 billion bushels, up from 1.2 billion a month ago, the USDA said.