March 12, 2008

US soy stocks down as exports surge

The estimated US soy ending stock for 2007-08 was reduced by 20 million bushels to 140 million this month, the lowest since 2003, the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) said.

US soy exports were raised 20 million bushels to 1,025 million reflecting strong sales, specifically to China.

Reduced soy exports from Brazil as good crush margins and strong demand for soymeal and oil caused an increase in projected crush. 

Domestic soy oil use was also reduced due to lower projected use for biodiesel.  The US Census Bureau reported that biodiesel production from soy oil for the six consecutive months has been reduced.

US soy oil exports are rising sharply this month reflecting strong sales and shipments through February, while stocks are projected higher, WASDE said.

The US season-average soy price is at US$10.00 to US$10.80 per bushel, unchanged from last month.  The soymeal price is projected at US$320 to US$350 per short tonne, up US$15 on both ends of the range.  The soy oil price is projected at 53 to 57 cents per pound, up 5.5 cents on both ends of the range.