March 12, 2004

Global 03/04 Oilseed Production Seen At 343.6 Million MT

Projected global oilseed production for MY 2003/04 declined 2.3 million metric tons to 343.6 million tons in March, or 0.7% below last month's estimate, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Thursday in its "Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade" report.
 
Most of the decline is due to a 1.7 million ton weather related decrease in peanut production in China, the report said. Additional decreases in production estimates this month include soybeans of 1.5 million tons in Brazil, which more than offset increases of 600,000 tons in India and 120,000 tons in Indonesia.
 
Rapeseed production rose 200,000 tons in Australia and 300,000 tons in India, more than offsetting China's loss of 190,000 tons. Most of India's gain in oilseed production is due to nearly ideal monsoon rains last summer and carryover soil moisture into the spring.
 
The drought in South Africa reduced sunflowerseed production 279,000 tons, which more than offset an increase in the European Union of 110,000 tons. Brazil's soybean export forecast fell 1.8 million tons due to lower production, while projected imports for China and the EU were lowered 1.5 million and 700,000 tons respectively.
 
Projected world oilseeds ending stocks are down nearly 1.6 million tons this month due almost entirely to an expected drop in soybean stocks in China, the release said. The latest projections place 2003/04 ending stocks at 39.7 million tons, which is 3.4 million tons lower than estimated for 2002/03 ending stocks.
 
Global meal production is expected to rise slightly from last month's estimate to 199.6 million tons. This represents a 7.1% increase, or 13.2 million tons higher than 2002/03's. The largest meal increase is attributable to rapeseed, followed by soybeans and sunflowerseed. These increases more than offset a decline in production of peanut meal, and fish meal. Global soybean meal consumption is down slightly this month partly due to weaker demand in Asia and the EU.
 
Forecast vegetable oil production rose slightly from last month to 100.9 million tons mainly due to a 266,000-ton increase in rapeseed oil, as well as a smaller increase in soybean oil. India and China were responsible for most of the rapeseed oil consumption increase. These increases more than offset the 190,000-ton fall in peanut oil production.
 
The latest estimate of consumption of edible oils now exceeds 100 million tons for the first time, while world vegetable oil ending stocks are projected essentially unchanged at only 6.2 million tons, the report said. The current projected vegetable oil ending stocks as a percentage of consumption are the lowest since 1972/73.

 
Source: USDA