March 11, 2011

 

Brazilian soy crop seen at a record of over 70 million tonnes

 

 

Brazil's 2010/11 soy crop was projected at a record of 70.3 million tonnes, up from an estimate of 70.1 million tonnes released in February, the government's crop supply agency Conab said Thursday (Mar 10).

 

Brazil, which is about to enter the full swing of harvest for the new soy crop, brought in a record 68.7 million tonnes in 2009/10.

 

Independent and government forecasters have been raising their outlooks for the current crop in recent months.

 

Conab said that "typical summer weather with clear, hot days with thunderstorms dominated in January" over most of the grain crop and "favoured the development of most of the crops."

 

Earlier in the season, producers and analysts had been more sceptical about the potential of the current crop due to the late arrival of rains in the centre-west during the start of planting season in September-October and the expected drier weather that tends to result from the La Nina weather anomaly.

 

Conab said yields are seen matching last years exceptionally good productivity of 2.93 tonnes per hectare on average, while area is seen expanding 2.4% to a record 24 million hectares (59 million acres).

 

In the agency's sixth estimate of the national grains crop, Conab lifted its forecast for corn output as well, to 55 million tonnes from the 54.5 million tonnes projected last month. This would still be shy of the 55.97 million tonnes harvested in the last crop.

 

The 2010/11 cotton crop was seen putting out a record 1.95 million tonnes of lint, unchanged from the February forecast and up from the 1.19 million tonnes of the previous season.

 

Technicians from the agency had gone into the field prior to their February forecast but did not on this latest estimate, relying rather on data and long-distance communication with the productive areas.

 

Heavy and persistent rains, however, in many of the important soy growing regions have begun to raise concerns over the ability of producers to harvest mature fields before disease and moisture ruin the beans.

 

Recent rains will allow later maturing soy fields to fill pods with beans and improve yields for harvest in the coming months. But some analysts have already reported isolated cases of excess moisture causing losses in fields ready to harvest.

 

The soy harvest should begin to peak in March.