March 11, 2005

USDA raises 2004-05 US wheat export forecast again

The US Department of Agriculture, in its monthly supply and demand report, raised its forecast for 2004-05 US wheat exports by 25 million bushels for the second consecutive month.

The USDA predicted Thursday that US wheat exports will total 1.05 billion bushels, up from the 1.025 billion forecast made in February and 1 billion in January.

"Exports are raised due to stronger-than-expected sales to date and lower projected exports from Canada and the EU-25," the USDA said in the monthly report.

The USDA also lowered its wheat ending stocks forecast for 2004-05, largely due to the expected increase in exports. Wheat ending stocks are now expected to reach 553 million bushels, 5 million less than predicted a month ago.

Hard red spring wheat ending stocks are seen down 8 million bushels while the hard red winter prediction was lowered by 7 million bushels. Ending stocks for white and durum wheat were each raised by 5 million bushels.

The predicted rise in exports is expected to be mostly offset by lower use in food, USDA said.

The food-use forecast was lowered by USDA to 890 million bushels, a 20-million-bushel drop from the February forecast.

"Lower food use is based on the recent mill grind estimates released by the Bureau of Census," the USDA said.