March 11, 2004

US Poultry Export Forecast Down Following Bird Flu Outbreak

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Wednesday it still expects that nationwide bans on U.S. poultry by several countries, due to avian influenza outbreaks, will be minimalized to cover only the few U.S. regions affected, but in the meantime the USDA said it has lowered its U.S. export forecast.
 
The USDA, in its monthly supply and demand report, said it now expects total U.S. poultry exports to total just 5.51 billion pounds in 2004, down from the 5.885-billion-pound forecast made in February. The U.S. broiler export forecast was lowered to 4.955 billion pounds, down from 5.275 billion pounds a month ago.
 
"The broiler export forecast is lowered as outbreaks of avian influenza in several states resulted in a number of countries tightening restrictions on poultry imports from the United States," the USDA said. "Based on previous experience, it is expected that nationwide bans currently imposed by several importers on U.S. poultry will be regionalized, permitting the flow of exports from states unaffected by the disease outbreak."
 
Just a month ago, the USDA said it believed avian influenza outbreaks in Asia would lead to less competition and increased exports for both the U.S. and Brazil. In February, the USDA raised its forecast for U.S. broiler exports by 170 million pounds. that increase was erased Wednesday in the March report.