March 10, 2011

Ukraine's 2011 grain yield may hit 49 million tonnes

Favourable weather is likely to advance Ukraine's 2011 grain harvest by 24% from 39.2 million in 2010 to 48.7 million tonnes this year, analyst APK-Inform said Wednesday (Mar 9).

The consultancy said in a report that a higher yield could compensate a decrease in this year's grain sowing area to about 15.6 million hectares from 15.9 million last year.

"In favourable conditions the grain yield could reach 3.24 tonne per hectare and the harvest could be at 48.7 million. According to a pessimistic scenario, the harvest could total 43.4 million tonnes," APK-Inform said.

Ukraine's Farm Ministry said last week that 56% of the 2011 winter grain crops were in good condition, 38% of crops were in satisfactory state and 6% were in poor condition and could be reseeded this spring.

Another agriculture consultancy UkrAgroConsult last month said good crop conditions allowed the country to expect a jump in the grain harvest to 46.2 million tonnes in 2011.

UkrAgroConsult said on Wednesday it had increased its 2011 wheat harvest outlook slightly to 21.27 million tonnes from 21 million a month earlier. The consultancy said the increase in the sowing area was the main reason for the changes.

The consultancy also raised the forecast for 2011 corn crop to 12.38 million tonnes from 11.70 million, but cut the barley harvest forecast to 10.66 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 11 million.

Ukraine's harvest fell to 39.2 million tonnes in 2010 from 46 million in 2009 after a severe drought.