CBOT Soy Review on Monday: Mixed; retreats on late position-squaring

 

 

CBOT March soybeans settled 2 cents higher at US$8.81, and May soybeans ended 2 cents lower at US$8.65. November soybeans settled 2 1/2 cents higher at US$8.17 1/2.

 

May soy meal settled 30 cents lower at US$265.00 per short tonne. May soyoil finished 27 points lower at 30.27 cents per pound.

 

A quiet news front with uncertain economic and supply/demand outlooks promoted the mixed tone, as traders were unwilling to take on added risk without clear fundamental directives, analysts said.

 

Futures held firm for most of the day, underpinned by short-covering amid tight nearby cash supplies and strength in crude-oil futures, analysts said.

 

The front-month March futures led upside moves, as limited farmer selling has propped up cash prices, as exporters and processors compete for tight supplies.

 

Trade positioning heading toward Wednesday's supply and demand report helped maintain the advances as well, as speculative shorts remain at risk of potential bullish adjustments to the domestic and world balance sheet.

 

However, as the day drew to a close, the uncertainty of the macro economy with a firmer U.S. dollar and modest declines in stock indexes generated pressure to send buyers running for cover down the stretch, analysts added.

 

In pit trades, speculative fund selling was estimated at 1,000 lots.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Wednesday. The average trade forecast from the 13 analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires pegs 2008-09 U.S. ending stocks at 200 million bushels. The forecasts ranged from 177 million to 220 million bushels. In February, USDA projected the 2008-09 carryout at 210 million bushels.

 

Meanwhile, moisture needs remain high for Argentina's double-crop soybeans, Cropcast Weather Services said in a morning forecast. Based on recent rains and the relatively dry forecast for this week, there are drier spots in southern Cordoba, far southwestern Santa Fe and northwestern Buenos Aires that will run into some stress, Cropcast said.

 

However, the affected area should only encompass 25% to 30% of the double-crop area or less than 10% of total area, and rains are forecast to ease some of these drier spots early next week, Cropcast said. This will help to limit yield impacts, and official reports from the region continue to indicate that crop conditions are average to good for soybeans overall.

 

Soy product futures ended mixed, with soyoil backpedaling off early price strength on a late retreat in crude oil from initial highs and end-of-the-day position-squaring, analysts said. Soy meal futures stumbled from earlier gains in unison with the rest of the complex, but managed to gain product share on spreads amid tight nearby cash supplies, analysts added

 

May oil share ended at 36.72%. The May crush ended at 56 1/4 cents.

 

In pit trades, speculative fund selling was estimated at 1,000 lots in soyoil.