March 10, 2005

Supplies to increase by 5 percent on pigs from UK

The Meat and Livestock Commission stated that due to better weather conditions during 2004 summer, the pig supplies in the United Kingdom have been forecasted to increase by more than 5 percent for the year 2005, which is approximately 9.68 million head.

More fertility rates in sows are expected to have resulted.

The estimate for average sow productivity for 2005 increased to 18.5 which is much above the previous year figure of 17.4 percent.

This increase is expected to lead to a significant increase in slaughter rates in the second and third quarters of 2005, particularly when coupled with the stable pig herd results as recorded in the June UK Livestock survey.

Within the total forecast slaughter, finished pig numbers are expected to be six percent, or 490,000 head higher, offsetting an eight percent decline in throughput.

Overall production, in light of the expected increased availability, is forecast to result in a four percent increase in pork production, to 614,000 tonnes, while bacon output is expected to increase by three percent, to 200,000 tonnes, more in-line with 2003 bacon production.

Given the lower feed costs, average carcase weights are expected to rise a further 0.3 kg in 2005, to average 75kg for slaughter pigs.

As feed contacts are renewed over the coming months, lower grain costs will result in overall lower breakeven prices, which could see profit channelled into investments, according to the MLC.