Drier weather to favour peak of Brazil soy harvest

Blue skies this week will help Brazil harvest a record crop in the main soy belt but growers in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul are concerned about the lack of rain hurting ongoing flowering.

Brazil is harvesting a record 65-66 million tonnes crop this season due to above average rainfall over almost all the main soy belt since planting started in mid-September.

Only trace amounts of rain have fallen in the southern soy belt so far in March. The weather will favour No. 2 soy producing state Parana which is well advanced in harvest with about half of its crop collected.

No. 3 soy producer Rio Grande do Sul state, the southernmost of the soy belt states and the last to mature, is just beginning its early harvest. Producers are concerned with the drier weather at this point when many fields are still flowering and require regular moisture to form beans.

Fields in the state will have a good coverage of leaves to preserve soil moisture levels for a couple weeks with only minor damage to yields. However, if the stated goes any longer without rain output will begin to wane.

"An outlook for drier weather has begun in its second week in the southern region. For Parana, this is not a problem, but for Rio Grande do Sul, the lack of rain is worrying producers," Somar said in a daily soy weather bulletin.

Heavy widespread rain fell over the main centre-west soy states last week, such as No. 1 producer state Mato Grosso and No. 4 producer Goias. The blue-sky outlook will allow maturing beans and fields to dry out for harvest.

The northern regions of Mato Grosso and Goias will see some widespread rains, but harvesting in these regions is well advanced, as they are the first regions to mature.

In an extended 10-day forecast, Somar said that rain would return to the south but only in the form of isolated showers, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul where they will also be of weaker volumes.