March 9, 2009

 

ASA Weekly: US could benefit from Argentina's farm crisis

 

 

Political tensions between local farmers and the government in Argentina could see a boost in soymeal exports from the US as buyers lose confidence in Argentine produce. 

  

The Argentine government described a series of agreements signed last week after a marathon bargaining session as successful, while representatives of the farming sector were more cautious, describing the accords only as a step forward. According to Eduardo Buzzi, from the Argentine Agrarian Federation and one of the four farm leaders representing thousands of growers, the conflict has yet come to an end.

 

This sentiment was also echoed by Argentine Rural Society head Hugo Biolcati in a televised news conference, saying "we've achieved some progress, some solutions...but we still haven't yet managed to see the results of previous government promises."

 

The agreements signed cover compensation for milk, grain and cattle, and came after President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner unexpectedly joined Production Minister Debora Giorgi and Interior Minister Florencio Randazzo in the talks.

 

The accords, however, did not alter export taxes on soy - the area of disagreement that led farmers nearly a year ago to take to the streets in protest, blocking highways and resulting in food shortages in some areas. Argentine Rural Confederation head Mario Llambias said Fernandez would not waiver when pressed to lower export taxes on soy, reaffirming the government's position that Argentina needs the billions of dollars the taxes contribute to the economy. Llambias said farm leaders will take a proposal to cut duties to opposition members in Congress.

 

The Argentine situation along with increasing US stocks of soy could lead to a large amount of US soy by-products available for export. USDA has forecast that ending stocks for US soy could be up on the year by as much as 80 percent as 2009-10 domestic processing is expected to fall to its lowest level since 2003-04, with the exception of the current 2008-09 marketing year.
 
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance
 
United States 
Argentina
Brazil
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
Actual
Estimate
Proj.
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
Soybeans
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
12,229
15,617
5,580
334
1,876
4,160
2,252
3,110
4,464
 Production
86,770
72,859
80,536
48,800
46,200
43,800
59,000
61,000
57,000
 Imports
246
269
245
2,336
2,810
1,800
108
88
50
 Crush
49,198
49,024
44,906
35,962
33,200
33,700
31,511
32,245
31,000
 Exports
30,428
31,598
31,298
12,132
11,954
12,700
23,805
24,514
24,750
 Other
4,002
2,543
4,447
1,500
1,572
1,600
2,934
2,975
3,025
 Usage
83,628
83,165
80,651
49,594
46,726
48,000
58,250
59,734
58,775
   Carryout
15,617
5,580
5,710
1,876
4,160
1,760
3,110
4,464
2,739
Soymeal
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
285
314
267
2,003
1,144
1,313
863
1,563
1,884
 Production
39,058
38,322
35,372
27,856
26,060
26,355
24,420
25,000
24,025
 Domestic use
31,184
30,078
27,896
619
634
660
11,520
12,180
12,391
 Net Exports
7,845
8,291
7,471
28,096
25,257
26,058
12,200
12,499
11,995
 Usage
39,029
38,369
35,367
28,715
25,891
26,718
23,720
24,679
24,386
   Carryout
314
267
272
1,144
1,313
950
1,563
1,884
1,523
Soybean oil
thousand tonnes
 Carryin
1,365
1,399
1,126
487
310
475
300
341
535
 Production
9,294
9,329
8,532
6,917
6,331
6,442
6,050
6,190
5,950
 Domestic use
8,420
8,313
7,984
580
1,106
1,205
3,550
3,925
4,011
 Net exports
840
1,289
657
6,514
5,060
5,445
2,459
2,071
2,150
 Usage
9,260
9,602
8,641
7,094
6,166
6,650
6,009
5,996
6,161
   Carryout
1,399
1,126
1,017
310
475
267
341
535
324
 

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