March 9, 2006

 

Bird flu could reach the Americas in 6 to 12 months: UN

 

 

The H5N1 strain of bird flu could reach the Americas in six to 12 months or even sooner following its rapid expansion through Asia, Europe and Africa, UN bird flu chief Dr David Nabarro said.

 

Wild birds are carrying the H5N1 virus and their migratory patterns will probably take some infected birds from West Africa to the Arctic and Alaska this spring. Some infected birds will then likely move south in the fall on a different migratory route into the Americas, he said Wednesday.

 

So far, human cases are uncommon and virtually all people who have gotten bird flu have had close contact with infected poultry. But scientists worry that the virus may mutate into a form that can pass easily between people.

 

The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation and the World Organisation for Animal Health are "very challenged by the expansion in the incidence of avian influenza that has occurred during the last three months as it has moved through Eastern Europe, into Western Europe into the Middle East, into India, into Africa," he said.

 

Nabarro said the UN is focusing on reducing the amount of H5N1 in poultry through culling and vaccinations.

 

The prime focus at the moment is on Africa, especially West Africa where 50 percent of the people live on less than US$1 a day and many families rely on chickens for their economic livelihood and have no money to build coops or buy soap to help prevent H5N1 infections, he said.

 

"There is a regional crisis in West Africa associated with H5N1," with Nigeria and Niger already affected, Nabarro said. "But we are frankly anticipating that we will find the virus in other West African countries and there is a lot of preparatory work under way."

 

In Western Europe, there are numerous reports of H5N1 in dead wild birds from an increasing number of countries but there are very few instances of movement of the virus into the domestic and commercial poultry populations.

 

In the Middle East, H5N1 is still being reported in Egypt, Iran and Iraq and human cases are continuing in Indonesia and China, Nabarro said.

 

The US government hopes to test 75,000 to 100,000 live or dead birds this year, a significant increase over past years, and much of the effort will focus on Alaska, according to US Department of Agriculture officials.

 

The next major international review of global bird flu efforts will also be in June.