March 9, 2004

Forecast Fall In China's Soybean Imports During March-April

China's soybean imports in March and April are expected to fall sharply versus imports during this time last year, as local soybean crushers anxiously wait for arrivals of cheaper South American soybeans, traders in China said.
 
In March, China's soybean imports are expected to be only 1.00 million metric tons or less, and April's imports might barely exceed half a million tons, traders who track shipments said Monday.
 
"The total soybean imports in March and April are likely to be around 1.50 million tons, as U.S. soybeans are mostly shipped and the South American season hasn't started yet," a trader from a Hong Kong-based oilseeds company said Monday.
 
In comparison, China's March 2003 soybean imports were 1,864,047 tons, and 2,208,530 tons in April 2003, official customs figure show.
 
China's monthly soybean imports have trended down since early 2004, as soaring freight costs, multi-year highs for Chicago Board of Trade soybeans prices and depressed soymeal demand damped the appetites of local soybean processors.
 
China's soybean markets are likely to be supported by the inevitable tight supply in late April, as South American soybeans will arrive after that month.
 
"The freight cost is high and it is not easy to find cargoes now. South American soybean arrivals are just a big wild card," an analyst from a Shanghai-based brokerage house said Monday.
 
China imported 1.98 million tons of soybeans in January, 53% higher than imports in January 2003, official figures show. In February, about 22 cargoes, or 1.20 million tons, of imported soybeans arrived at Chinese ports, according to unofficial estimates of traders tracking the shipments.