March 8, 2012

 

US records historical improved wheat trend

 

 

The hard red winter wheat crops of the US have made historical trend by leaving expectancy in better shape than they went in, due to improved soil moisture although more rain is still needed to secure condition gains.

 

In Kansas, America's top wheat-producing state, farm officials rated 50% of the crop in "good" or "excellent" condition, as of Sunday, a rise from the 43% seen at the end of October.

 

Australia and New Zealand bank analysts had, in the autumn, warned that "history was against any major improvement from here" in the crop, noting that over the previous 11 seasons, the proportion of crop rated good or excellent "has never improved post-dormancy relative to October conditions, pre-dormancy".

 

However, the USDA in a report overnight highlighted the role of a "mild winter" in boosting a Kansas crop "still looking better than last year", when drought prompted a 22% slump in the state's average wheat yield.

 

In Texas, another major hard red winter wheat state, the crop was rated at 33% good or excellent, up from 25% in late October.

 

It was also in better shape than a year ago, when only 18% made the top two grades, if well below the 46% figure recorded for early March 2010.

 

In many areas of Texas last week "wheat and oat crops showed improvement due to moisture and warmer temperatures", USDA staff said, highlighting "good progress" in irrigated crops.

 

Meanwhile, in Oklahoma, 62% of winter wheat was rated good or excellent, up from 36% heading into dormancy, and boosted by an improvement in moisture levels.

 

The proportion of topsoil with adequate, or surplus, moisture was, at 45%, more than twice the level on Sunday as a year before.

 

Nonetheless, USDA officials warned that crops still faced challenges from the overhang of last year's drought conditions, behind a 23% slump to 780 million bushels in the national hard winter wheat crop.

 

In Oklahoma, "more rain is needed to continue normal development" in seedlings, which are showing stress in some areas.

 

The crop in Kansas, where 37% of topsoil is "short" or "very short" of water, "is in need of moisture during the first weeks of emerging from dormancy".

 

Indeed, other commentators warned of a downside to unusually warm temperatures which have encouraged crops to leave dormancy early this year.

 

Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said: "Unseasonably warm weather has brought the US hard red winter wheat crop out or dormancy.

 

"However this will accentuate the lack of moisture available in the south west Great Plains. Rainfall is needed - however no major falls are forecast for a while."

 

At US-based Martell Crop Projections, Gail Martell said: "The risk of strong wheat development too early is that a hard freeze in spring may catch the crop in the reproductive stage, causing severe and irreversible damage."