March 8, 2010

North Korea may face food shortage

North Korea will fall short of producing the food it needs to feed its people by 1.2 million tonnes if it does not receive foreign assistance this year, a South Korean think-tank said.

The state-run Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) said that North Korea's food grain output is forecast to reach 3.80-4.00 million tonnes this year, larger than the 3.52 million tonnes estimated by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The total, however, falls far short of the 5.23 million tonnes the country needs to feed its people and livestock. Of the total requirements, 4.05 million tonnes are needed for food, 300,000 tonnes for animal feed, 170,000 tonnes for seeds and 122,000 tonnes for processed food.

The latest assessment on demand is based on a average North Korean consuming 1,600 kilocalories (kcal) of food per day, or 167 kilogrammes for the entire year, compared to the 2,130 kcal recommended by the World Food Program.

Based on this prediction, the North may be short by 1.20-1.40 million tonnes of food. Although the country usually imports 200,000 tonnes of food annually, that could reduce the shortage by a maximum 1.2 million tonnes.

The report said the North may find itself unable to get assistance in making up this year's food shortfall due to Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions and UN-imposed sanctions.

Only China is expected to provide grain to its neighbour - about 300,000 tonnes, the amount that it has provided in the past.