March 8, 2004

Brazil's Soy Crop Estimates Down To 56.9 Million MT

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, or Abiove, has cut its 2004-05 soybean crop estimate to 56.9 million metric tons, from a previous 58.9 million tons, following irregular weather conditions in January and February and a higher-than- expected incidence of the Asian rust fungus.
 
Despite the reduction, this year's crop will still be well above last season's 51.6 million tons, due to higher planted area.
 
The crushers' estimate is now in line with the official Brazilian crop estimate but lower than the 61 million tons forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The association also lowered its forecast for soybean exports this season to 22.8 million tons, down from a previous estimate of 25.2 million tons. Last season exports totaled 20.5 million tons.
 
Meanwhile, estimates for crushing were increased to 32.1 million tons, from 31.5 million tons. Last year, crushing totaled 28.2 million tons.
 
Soymeal production is seen rising to 25 million tons in 2004-05, up from a previous estimate of 24.5 million, and higher than last year's 22 million tons. Meanwhile, meal exports will reach 16.8 million tons, up from 14.1 million tons last year.
 
With increased crushing, soyoil output is also seen growing, to 6 million tons from 5.35 million tons last season, Abiove said. Exports are pegged at 2.9 million tons, up from 2.4 million tons in 2003-04.
 
Brazil is the world's second largest soybean producer.