March 7, 2012

China revises up its 2012 projected beef and pork output

China ups its estimates for its expected 2012 beef output by 24,000 tonnes, to 5.5 million tonnes.

The revised 2012 pork production figure is 51.6 million tonnes, a nominal increase from the initial estimate and 4% higher than the revised 2011 estimate.

The revised 2012 forecast is largely due to fewer outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and warmer-than-usual winter weather that has prevented sickness and early deaths in key producing provinces, according to USDA GAIN: China Livestock and Products Semi-annual report.

Adequate domestic supplies (in grains and natural grass) and favourable pasture conditions in West and Southwest China are also improving animal feeding and increasing cattle weights.

Fresh grass production reached a record high of one billion tonnes in 2011.

The revised import forecast for breeding beef cattle is down by 3,000 head to 97,000 head, largely because of higher than expected domestic production and rising import prices.

The revised 2012 pork production figure is 51.6 million tonnes, a nominal increase from the initial estimate and 4% higher than the revised 2011 estimate.

The new forecast for pork consumption is 51.8 million tonnes, which is 335,000 tonnes higher than the previous estimate, mainly due to larger domestic supplies and lower prices.

Addressing swine diseases is also on the agenda as 60% of China's meat protein comes from pork consumption.