March 7, 2007

Australia's beef exports to fall in 2007/2008
 

 

The volume of beef exports from Australia is seen to fall 2.8 percent to 925,000 boneless metric tonnes next fiscal year from 952,000 tonnes this fiscal year ending June 30, due to a downturn in production, according to a government forecast issued March 6.

 

However the value of exports will rise 7.4 percent next fiscal year to A$4.65 billion from A$4.33 billion, with an increase in export unit values more than offsetting the effect of lower volumes, the government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, or Abare, forecast.

 

About 90 percent of Australian beef exports go to three major markets, namely Japan, the US and South Korea, making Australia the biggest exporter by value in the world and the second biggest by volume after Brazil.

 

Abare expects exports to Japan in the next fiscal year to slip 2.5 percent to 390,000 tonnes from an estimated 400,000 tonnes this fiscal year. The forecast that assumes protocols covering imports by Japan of US beef, Australia's main competitor, will remain unchanged.

 

Beef exports to the US next fiscal year, reported Abare, will slip 5.6 percent to 270,000 tonnes from 286,000 tonnes this fiscal year, reflecting reduced female cattle slaughter in Australia as the herd is rebuilt after drought and increased competition from Uruguay.

 

Australian beef exports to South Korea are forecast to slump 25 percent next fiscal year to 120,000 tonnes from an estimated 161,000 tonnes this fiscal year, Abare said.

 

This as the report assumes South Korea agrees to relax its current restrictive protocols on US beef exports, which will cause demand for Australian beef to soften. 

 

Australian beef production next fiscal year will fall a little to 2.11 million tonnes carcass weight from 2.18 million tons this fiscal year, it said. 

 

Slaughterings will fall to 8.60 million heads next fiscal year from an estimated 8.86 million this fiscal year as producers retain female animals on farms to rebuild herds, it said.

 

As for exports of live cattle, Abare forecast shipments will rise 10 percent next fiscal year to 660,000 heads from 600,000 heads this fiscal year, driven largely by an expansion in the supply of cattle, which are largely sourced from northern areas.

 

In 2006, Israel emerged as the second largest export market for Australian cattle taking around 80,000 heads, displacing Malaysia, indicating the impact of currency movements. The biggest market remains Indonesia, Abare concluded.