March 5, 2010

Argentina soy crop doing well, but excessive rain a concern

Argentina's 2009-10 soy crop continues to develop well, although concerns over excess rainfall persist, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said in its weekly crop report Thursday (Mar 4).

After more rainfall over the past week, soil moisture levels are good across the central farm belt and fringes, but "there are dangerous excesses in some areas and week by week, fungal diseases are spreading," the exchange said.

In addition, above-average rainfall is expected throughout the harvest season, which may delay the harvest and cause further problems.

The exchange left its production forecast unchanged at a record 52 million tonnes, but said the forecast may be raised. "If the weather around harvest time doesn't cause significant delays and if the rate of diseases isn't high, it's likely that final production will be about 2% higher than the current forecast," the exchange said.

The corn harvest has kicked off, with excellent yields expected, the exchange said. To date, 3% of the crop has been harvested. The exchange held its forecast for commercial corn at 20.2 million tonnes, up 37.6% on the year.

Estimates for Argentina's 2009-10 crop production in millions of hectares (HA) or millions of tonnes (MT).

                                  Wheat                 Soy                 Corn
   Ag Ministry                7.5MT             18.2HA             19-21MT
   B.A. Cereals Exch    7.44MT                52MT               20.2MT
   USDA                          9MT                53MT               17.2MT
   Rosario Exchange         --                52.5MT                   --
   Granar                         --                53.4MT              19.6MT
   Lartirigoyen                  --                55.3MT              19.2MT
   Panagricola                  --                   51MT                 20MT