March 4, 2010

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Down 4-6 cents, lack fresh supportive news

 

 

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade are poised for a lower start to Thursday's day session, under pressure from a lack of fresh supportive news.

 

The absence of a bullish influence from outside financial markets coupled with a lack of fresh bullish fundamental news have traders anticipating futures will follow the lower overnight theme.

 

CBOT soybeans are seen opening 4 cents to 6 cents lower.

 

Overnight, CBOT March soybeans ended 6 1/4 cents lower at US$9.54 3/4 a bushel, and May soybeans were 5 3/4 cents lower at US$9.57 3/4.

 

The advancing South American soybean harvest and limited Chinese buying interest have soybean futures on the defensive as world soybean inventories increase, AgResource said in a market note.

 

Traders anticipate a quiet, light volume trading session as participants take a cautious approach until after next week's government supply and demand reports.

 

A technical analyst said first resistance for May soybeans is seen at Wednesday's high of US$9.71 1/2 and then at US$9.75. First support is seen at US$9.57 3/4 and then at this week's low of US$9.53 1/2.

 

Mildly supportive weekly export sales have the potential to lend mild price support, with traders also seen eyeing private production estimates from Informa Economics. Informa is expected to release world production estimates near 11:30 am EST.

 

U.S. Department of Agriculture reported total weekly soybean export sales were a net 370,400 metric tonnes for the week ended Feb. 25, with 182,400 tonnes sold for delivery in the 2009-10 marketing year. Analysts had forecast sales between 200,000 and 350,000 metric tonnes.

 

Soymeal sales were a net 88,900 tonnes. Trade estimates ranged from 50,000 to 150,000 tonnes. Soyoil commitments were 15,900 metric tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between 10,000 and 30,000 tonnes.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures fell on the Dalian Commodity Exchange Thursday, dragged down by bearish sentiment across the commodity complex, which was in turn pressured by weaker equities and a lack of supportive fundamental news. The September soybean contract settled 0.8% lower at RMB3,861 a metric tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended sharply higher Thursday as bullish supply fundamentals prompted a rush to cover short positions. The May contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR39 higher at MYR2,674 a metric tonne.