March 4, 2009

Global soymeal exports are likely to fall in coming months due to lower than expected meat demand, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (Mar 3).

It estimates US Jan/Sept 2009 soymeal exports will fall to 5.9 million tonnes from 6.26 million tonnes in the same period a year ago.

It also said Argentina's Jan/Sept 2009 soymeal exports would fall to 18.94 million tonnes from 19.06 million tonnes and Brazil's to 8.95 million tonnes from 9.34 million tonnes.

Analysts said the sharp decline in soymeal demand has contributed to a deterioration of crush margins, leading to a substantial decline in world soy crushings by approximately 4.5 million tonnes so far this season.

It estimates world Jan/March 2009 soymeal consumption will fall by around 2 million tonnes on year to 38.3 million tonnes.

Analysts' forecast for consumption of soymeal in April/Sept 2009 to virtually stagnate at the already depressed level of around 78 million tonnes registered in April/Sept 2008.

The also said the global economic crisis had hit consumer demand for meat, and are expecting world production of red meat and poultry at 288 million tonnes for Oct/Sept 2008/09, up by about 2.6 million tonnes from last season, as compared to an increase of 6.5 million tonnes per annum on the average of the past five seasons.