March 4, 2008

 

Australian wheat production to double, barley output to surge in 2008

 

 

Fueled by high global grain prices that could lead to record sowings, production of wheat, barley and other winter crops in Australia will soar in the next crop year ending Mar. 31, 2009, assuming normal seasonal conditions, according to new official forecasts issued Tuesday (March 4, 2008).

 

Australian wheat production will double to 25.95 million tonnes from a drought-affected crop of 13.09 million tonnes this crop year, according to the government's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, or Abare.

 

Actual plantings of winter crops will depend on rainfall in wheat-growing areas from April through July.

 

The higher production will mean increased availability of wheat for export after annual domestic demand of 7 million tonnes is met.

 

Wheat exports are forecast to surge to 15.39 million tonnes next shipping year starting Oct. 1, 2008, from a drought-reduced estimated 6.41 million tonnes this shipping year, Abare forecast in a quarterly outlook publication timed to coincide with its annual conference.

 

As a result, the value of wheat exports will more than double to AUS$4.73 billion (US$4.43 billion) next shipping year from an estimated AUS$2.14 billion (US$2.00 ) this shipping year, it added.

 

Barley production will jump 51 percent on-year to 8.96 million tonnes next crop year from a drought-affected 5.92 million tonnes this crop year.

 

Barley is the major component of coarse grains production that will rise 33 percent   on year to 13.34 million tonnes next crop year, of which half will be used domestically and the rest made available for export, Abare said.

 

Rapeseed production next crop year will jump 34 percent on-year to 1.43 million tonnes, Abare said.

 

The medium-term outlook for agricultural commodities is positive by historical standards while farmers' capacity to recover from drought appears to be robust, it said.

 

Abare expects world wheat prices to soften from historical highs next fiscal year ending June 30, 2009.

 

It forecast the price of the indicator US hard red winter wheat, free-on-board US Gulf of Mexico, to average US$288/tonne next fiscal year, down from an estimated US$339/tonne this fiscal year.

 

For next fiscal year, Abare projects world production at 622 million tonnes, consumption at 616 million tonnes, closing inventories at 115 million tonnes and global trade at 108 million tonnes.

 

For this fiscal year, it estimated production at 603 million tonnes, consumption at 611 million tonnes, closing inventories at 110 million tonnes and global trade at 104 million tonnes.

 

This meant higher production and consumption and also higher inventories and trade for the next fiscal year compared to the current one.

 

Abare also cites International Grains Council and USDA as sources.

 

 

Source: Abare