March 3, 2008

China oilseed meal production to be up 5 percent in MY08/09
 

MY08/09 oilseed meal production is forecast at 47.5 million tonnes based on a projected oilseed crush of 70.7 million tonnes, a 5-percent and 3-percent increase from MY07/08 respectively,  according to a USDA attache report posted Friday (February 29, 2008).

Soymeal continues to dominate the oil meal complex, accounting for 68 percent of total meal production followed by rapeseed meal (15 percent) and cottonseed meal (9 percent), the report said.

Total oil meal supply in MY08/09 is forecast at 49.3 million  tonnes, or five percent over the estimate for MY07/08.

Fishmeal continues to be the largest protein meal imported with an annual volume at more than 1 million  tonnes, while trade of other protein meals remains insignificant.

Soy meal (SBM) production in MY08/09 is forecast at 32.3 MMT, up six percent from the estimated 30.5 MMT in MY07/08 on growing demand for animal protein.

There is still a wide disparity between rural and urban areas in terms of meat consumption, with a gap of more than 20 kg. However, this gap is narrowing. The difference is stark when comparing milk consumption, with urban dwellers consuming six times the milk compared to those living in rural areas (18.3 kg compared to 3.1 kg). 

Meat companies thus see the potential for growth in meat and milk consumption in these markets as more than half of China's population are living in rural areas.

Meat consumption is also fueled by urbanization and remittances to rural areas. In general, the potential demand for protein food remains huge, especially in the inland rural provinces.

The rise in meat consumption would lead to a corresponding need for feeds, especially soymeal, the report said.