March 3, 2006

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Friday: Mixed on consolidation trade

 

 

Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were called to open mixed Friday as consolidation trade was expected after Thursday's surprising gains, brokers said.

 

Soy futures on Thursday settled at 13- to 14-cent gains in the nearby months after aggressive speculative buying as the nearby contracts topped key technical averages.

 

Rumors of possible European cash soymeal purchases and news that the deaths of wild birds on an island in the Bahamas appear to be unrelated to bird flu were also noted, CBOT brokers said.

 

In overnight screen trade, the e-cbot May soybean contract settled up 1 cent at US$6.05 a bushel. May soymeal ended up 10 cents a short tonne at US$178.20, and May soyoil closed down 0.10 cent at 24.65 cents a pound.

 

Thursday's close in CBOT May soybeans above psychological resistance at US$6.00 provides the bulls with fresh upside technical momentum, said a technical source. But it will take a close above resistance at the February high of US$6.17 to provide the bulls with solid upside technical power and push prices out of the recent choppy trading range.

 

First resistance for CBOT May soybeans was seen at US$6.07 1/2--Thursday's high--and then at US$6.11. First support was seen at US$6.00 and then at US$5.95, he added.

 

There were 1,125 deliveries posted on Friday against CBOT March soybeans, with R.J. O'Brien stopping 359 lots, brokers said.

 

Soybean contracts registered with the CBOT for delivery purposes as of Thursday afternoon were unchanged at 3,859 lots.

 

There were 310 deliveries posted Friday against CBOT March soyoil, with Term Commodities stopping all 310 lots.

 

No soymeal deliveries were posted Friday.

 

There were 6,343 soyoil registrations, up from the previous day's 6,233, and 34 soymeal registrations, unchanged from Wednesday.

 

U.S. Midwest cash soybean basis bids were mixed Friday, cash dealers said. Spot cash soybean bids were up 1 cent in St. Joseph, Mo., down 13 cents in Milwaukee, and down 1 cents in Louisville, Ken., they noted.

 

In global soy export news, South Korea's Major Feedmill Group has bought 55,000 metric tonnes of South American soybeans.

 

Soy traders also continued to eye South American harvest and marketing news.

 

In Brazil, dry conditions to isolated rains were expected Friday in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso Do Sul while scattered rains were possible Sunday and Monday, according to Meteorlogix weather service.

 

In Argentina, mainly dry conditions were expected through Monday, Meteorlogix said.

 

At the Dalian Commodity Exchange, soybean futures settled higher Friday, following speculative buying overnight on the CBOT, analysts said. The benchmark September 2006 soybean contract opened higher in reaction to CBOT, settling up RMB32 at RMB2,746 a metric tonne.

 

In Malaysia, crude palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended slightly lower on profit-taking. The benchmark May CPO contract ended at MYR1,488 a metric tonne, down just MYR2 from Thursday and off its intraday high of MYR1,502/tonne.

 

In Rotterdam, spot soybean and soymeal prices were higher, cash sources said.