March 3, 2004

China Key To Global Feed Grain Growth

China will play an influential role in determining world demand for feed grains for livestock in the next 10 to 15 years, an Australian grain supplier said.

The economic boom in China meant a change in food consumption patterns and population growth meant China and other developing countries would focus on producing food for human consumption, rather than livestock feed, said Ray Johnson, national technical manager for grains supplier Ridley Agriproducts.

"It's a massive change in world food consumption," Johnson told the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) Outlook 2004 conference.

China's near-term milling wheat imports could also be substantially higher-than- expected because of falling stocks and continued demand, ABARE analyst Rohan Nelson told the conference.

Australia has already sold China one million tonnes of wheat, in December, while the United States has also recently scored large-scale wheat export contracts with the Asian giant.                                                                   

China has previously imported some wheat, but recent imports mark a big increase as stocks decline and as China meets World Trade Organisation obligations, which included importing wheat.

Johnson said developing countries were expected to increase their demand for feedgrain to 409 million tonnes in 2020 from194 million tonnes in 1993. This would boost world feedgrain needs to 930 million tonnes from 630 million tonnes over the same period.

China was expected to account for almost half of the 409million tonnes of feedgrain needed by developing countries in2020, he said.

Johnson said the demand for feedgrains opened up big opportunities for Australian producers, who mainly produced grains for human consumption.