March 2, 2011

South American soy advances

South American soy prospects advanced in February following a boost by rainfalls and exports from the continent may attain a record, according to Oil World.

Production in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay will amount to 131.13 million tonnes in the present marketing year, up 2.8% from January's estimate, the analyst said. South American exports may hit a record of 47.4 million tonnes in the year through August as Brazil ships more, Oil World said. Exports from the US and Canada may also rise, it said.

"In South America, soy production prospects have improved decisively," the report said. "There is a possibility that actual production in Brazil and Argentina may exceed our forecasts."

Soy futures for May delivery rose US$0.075, or 0.5%, to US$13.7225/bushel on CBOT. The price has gained 43% in the past year.

Global growers may harvest 259.01 million tonnes, up 1.2 % from the forecast made on January 28, Oil World said. Stockpiles of soy will total 66.2 million tonnes, up 3.1% from the January estimate, Oil World said.

World soy processing is expected to increase 7.9% compared with the previous year of 227.2 million tonnes in the year through September, the report said.

World imports will reach a record 95.2 million tonnes through September, an increase of 7.3%, Oil World said. Chinese imports of the oilseed may total 55 million tonnes, 58% of total purchases, according to the report. Rapeseed availability has declined in the EU, which may boost imports of soybeans, Oil World said.

"The most dramatic expansion is occurring in China. EU imports of soybeans are set to recover as crushers are replacing insufficient supplies of rapeseed," according to the report.

EU rapeseed imports will total 2.5 million tonnes through June, up from 2.18 million tonnes in 2010, Oil World said. Production is forecast at 20.61 million tonnes, unchanged from a January report and 5.3% less than last year, the company said. World output may fall 2.8% from a year earlier to 58.77 million tonnes, according to the report.