March 2, 2009

US 2009-10 corn planted area is estimated at 86 million acres and production is seen at 12.365 billion bushels, according to the US Department of Agriculture, which released its grains and oilseeds outlook Friday (February 27) at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.

 

The USDA said corn yields this year are seen at 156.9 bushels per acre.

 

Input costs, particularly for fertilizer, have moderated but remain historically high, making less input-intensive crops such as soy preferable to corn, particularly outside higher-yielding Corn Belt states, the USDA said.

 

However, even though corn acreage in 2009 will be the same as in 2008, estimated production of 12.365 billion bushels, if realized, would be the second-highest on record, the USDA said.

 

Regarding demand, the government said ethanol production would grow to 4.1 billion bushels, up 14 percent from last year.

 

The USDA said total corn use will increase to 12.450 billion bushels in 2009, up from 11.950 billion last year, due to higher ethanol use to meet the federal Renewable Fuels Mandate, but that "the sharp year-to-year drop in per-acre net returns for corn is expected to limit acreage expansion."

 

Exports of US-grown corn are seen at 1.850 billion bushels.

 

Global corn exports are expected to increase as global livestock production begins to rebound in 2010, and "reduced use of feed-quality wheat should provide some boost to corn trade and consumption," the USDA said.

 

Exports from Brazil are expected to decline, but "Argentina is expected to return as the largest competitor to the United States ... unless actions by the Argentine government interfere significantly with trade," the USDA said.

 

Feed and residual use for corn, projected at 5.2 billion bushels, would be down 2 percent from 2008, due to fewer animals and increased feeding of distillers' grains, the USDA said. Distillers' grains are a byproduct of corn-based ethanol production.

 

Relatively high feed costs and weak meat demand will limit the number of grain-fed animals, the USDA said.

 

Ending stocks for 2009-10 are seen at 1.720 billion bushels.

 

In its February 12 baseline report, the USDA estimated 2009-10 planted area at 88 million acres and harvested acreage at 80.8 million. Production for the coming marketing year was estimated at 12.685 billion bushels, with yields seen at 157 bushels per acre.

 

Corn use for ethanol production in 2009-10 was estimated at 4.2 billion bushels and exports were seen at 2 billion bushels, according to the baseline report. Corn for livestock usage was estimated at 5.3 billion bushels, and ending stocks were 1.004 billion bushels, according to the baseline projections. The baseline projections were compiled in November 2008.

 

In 2008-09, corn planted acreage was 86 million acres, with harvested area at 78.6 million, according to the USDA's February supply and demand report. Production in that marketing year was 12.101 billion bushels with an average yield of 153.9 bushels an acre. Corn exports were 1.75 billion bushels, while livestock feed usage was 5.3 billion bushels in 2008-09. Ending stocks for that marketing year were 1.79 billion bushels.