March 2, 2009

US 2009 commercial beef production is forecast at 26.1 billion pounds, slightly below last year's output of 26.6 billion, the US Department of Agriculture said Friday (February 27) at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.

Beef exports in 2009 are expected to total 1.88 billion pounds, roughly the same as 2008, but still below the 2.5 billion pounds the US exported before bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or mad-cow disease, was discovered in the US in 2003.

Beef exports will be constrained by the global economic crisis and tighter beef supplies.

Commercial pork production is expected to a reach 23 billion pounds in 2009, down from the 23.4 billion produced last year.

The USDA said pork exports in 2009 are also forecast to decline 14 percent to 4 billion pounds because weaker global economic growth, a stronger US dollar and a recovery of production in China will "limit export opportunities."

Continuing on the downtrend seen in beef and pork, poultry production is seen lower in 2009 as well as producers reduced egg sets and placements of young birds due to poor fiscal returns.

Broiler production is forecast to fall 2 percent to 36.1 billion pounds in 2009, the USDA said, noting that if realized, it would be the first annual drop in broiler output since 1973.

Production of turkey is expected to drop 4 percent on the year to 6.04 billion pounds in 2009, the USDA said. The reduction would be the first annual decline since 2004.