March 2, 2009

US 2009-10 soy planted area is estimated at 77 million acres and production is seen at 3.24 billion bushels, according to the US Department of Agriculture, which released its grains and oilseeds outlook Friday (February 27) at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.

 

The 2009 production estimate is 9 percent higher than a year ago due to increased area and a rebound in yield, the USDA said.

 

The USDA said soy yields this year are seen at 42.6 bushels per acre.

 

The boost in acres is expected to come from plantings outside the Corn Belt. "High input costs and reduced plantings of wheat, cotton and peanuts" will lift soy plantings, the USDA said. The expansion, however, will be capped by fewer double-crop plantings because of lower soy prices and fewer winter wheat acres -- especially in the Delta, eastern Corn Belt and Southeast, the USDA said.

 

Regarding demand, the government said soy crush would be around 1.67 billion bushels while exports are seen at 1.225 billion bushels.

 

The increased crush is expected to be driven by higher projected soymeal exports as US crushers take advantage of drought-reduced supplies in Argentina. Argentina is the world's top exporter of soymeal and soyoil, but the soy crop there has been suffering from the effects of a drought.

 

The reduced supply of soy from Argentina and Brazil, which has also been experiencing dry weather, will create an opportunity for US exports, but China will again be key for export business.

 

"China once again will shape the demand side of the international soybean market, accounting for nearly half of world trade," the USDA said. "Thus, the growth of livestock production in China will be a pivotal factor in the global use of soy."

 

Ending stocks for 2009-10 are seen at 380 million bushels. If realized, that would be an 80 percent increase from last year, and the highest ending stocks figure since 2006-07.

 

In its February 12 baseline report, the USDA estimated 2009-10 planted area at 74 million acres and harvested acreage at 73 million. Production for the coming marketing year was estimated at 3.11 billion bushels, with yields seen at 42.6 bushels per acre. Exports were seen at 1.175 billion bushels, and ending stocks were estimated at 257 million bushels. The baseline projections were compiled in November 2008.

 

In 2008-09, soy planted acreage was 75.7 million acres, with harvested area at 74.6 million, according to the USDA's February supply and demand report. Production in that marketing year was 2.959 billion bushels and yield was 39.6 bushels an acre. Soy exports were 1.150 billion bushels in 2008-09, while ending stocks were 210 million bushels.