March 2, 2004

 

 

Thailand Bird Flu Threat Contained

 

Livestock officials in Thailand have declared the bird flu outbreak contained, but health officials have warned that another outbreak is still possible.

 

"It is the greatest threat to the country's livestock I have witnessed in the 10 years I have been in the profession," said Somboon Srisuthep, head of the Nakhon Sawan Provincial Livestock Office.

 

"I have never seen an epidemic that has forced us to cull as many animals."

 

Although the Livestock Development Department claims the "official" date of the bird flu virus's discovery was January 23, a sample of chickens collected from a farm in Nakhon Sawan is believed to be where the outbreak began in Thailand, Somboon said.

 

Thousands of chickens in Nakhon Sawan died from strange symptoms as early as last November. On November 19, the province was declared an epidemic zone, but the declaration failed to specify the disease, he said.

 

Within three days more than 107,000 chickens in two districts where the mysterious epidemic was rife were culled. The province was still under surveillance for bird flu virus, Somboon said.

 

After the first official confirmation of bird flu on January 23, the disease had spread to 43 provinces. Most of the infected provinces were in the northern and central regions of the Kingdom, he said.

 

The number of zones classified as "red" peaked in late January. The virus existed in Khon Kaen the longest - eight days - while Phang Nga was the only province in the south affected. The virus was most recently detected in Chon Buri.

 

The Livestock Department on February 24 announced a lifting of the "red" status in Chon Buri, signalling what it said was freeing the country of bird flu.

 

But yesterday a 29-year-old man from Nakhon Ratchasima was added to the list of suspected bird flu cases after he became ill following the death of his fighting cocks. He had buried the cocks early in February.

 

The case brings the number of suspected human cases to 21. At present, 45 provinces are in the "yellow" zone. If there were no more reports of infected cases in the next 21 days, restocking of farms could take place, Somboon said.

 

Chulalongkorn University veterinarian Jiroj Sasipriyachant said that surveillance needed to continue as the virus could return. He said that the spread of the virus had subsided because all infected chickens, along with all those within a five-kilometre radius of affected areas, had been killed.

 

In just over one month since the official announcement of the outbreak, more than 36 million chickens from about 48,000 farms were culled, most of them on small farms. The figure did not cover the deaths of chickens raised outside of poultry farms as the Livestock Department could not gather statistics, Somboon said.

 

This is not the first time Thailand has culled to curtail an epidemic. The programme was also used to control outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and anthrax in cattle, he said.

 

The number of chickens that survived is much higher than the death toll. About 130 million chickens are still being raised, Somboon said.

 

"We will not restock until we are certain that there is no virus. The return of the virus will bring another nightmare to the country that we must not allow to happen," Somboon added.

 

Two months on, chicken farmers are still suffering the consequences, but there is light at the end of the tunnel

 

The country's chicken industry is still reeling from the effects of the bird-flu outbreak more than two months after it was first detected - but there is hope that the worst is over.

 

The virus is estimated to have cost the industry more than Bt30 billion to date, affecting hundreds of thousands of people. Some 36 million chickens have been slaughtered.

 

On the brighter side, Deputy Agriculture Minister Newin Chidchob expressed hope last week that chicken-breeding would return to normal as early as next month.

 

The industry has also been buoyed by Friday's decision by Japanese health officials to grant four local companies permission to export heat-treated chicken to its shores.

 

There is also a chance another 25 exporters will be allowed to export heat-treated chickens to Japan this month.

 

The Centre for Economic and Business Forecasting at the University of Thai Chamber of Commerce early last month said the outbreak had cost the industry some Bt20 billion.

 

It based the figure on the slaughter of 25 million chickens (as of February 1) worth Bt5.45 billion, frozen-chicken export losses of Bt1.8 billion a month, business-opportunity losses of Bt2 billion a month, and domestic-consumption losses of around Bt1 billion a month.

 

The centre painted this bird-flu scenario: the sector would be hit with losses of Bt20 billion if the epidemic were brought under control within three months, increasing to Bt30 billion if it lasted six months and Bt40 billion if it continued for nine months.

 

The total household income for chicken exporters could fall from Bt17.53 billion to just under Bt13 billion this year, centre director Thanavath Phonvichathe said.

 

"If the government can solve the export problem, it will put an end to further losses," he added.

 

Thanavath said domestic-chicken consumption had improved following the government's "Eat Chicken'' campaign last month, with 30 per cent of the population still refusing to eat chicken after a previous high of 70 per cent declining to do so.

 

In late January, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said the outbreak would shave 0.1 per cent off growth in gross domestic product this year, but he was confident that the loss could be made up through other exports.

 

The Finance Ministry forecast economic growth dipping by 0.4 per cent because of bird flu.

 

"We cannot say right now that Thailand has recovered from the avian-influenza epidemic. That will happen only when Japan resumes imports of all Thai chicken products," said Thammanoon Pornrojanagoon, senior vice president for marketing of Saha Farms.

 

The European Union and Japan are the country's biggest and second-biggest importers of chicken respectively, accounting for more than 90 per cent of total export value of Bt40.69 billion last year.

 

Thammanoon said some previous shipments of chicken exports returned to Bangkok could be reprocessed as cooked products for re-export.