March 1, 2012

  

 

The latest trends analysed by the English Beef and Lamb Executive (Eblex) stated that the firm market experienced by beef producers last year is set to continue during 2012.

 

The Beef Market Prospects report forecasts that UK prime beef and cull cow slaughtering will decline this year after rising in 2010 and 2011.

 

With imports expected to fall back once more after the rise of the past two years and set to remain below 2010's levels, the market will be further bolstered by demand for exports, it said.

 

Eblex said the "notably firm" beef market of last year is likely to continue for the rest of this year.

 

The total number of beef cattle in the UK has fallen by around 2% on year, and the majority of the animals are now less than two years old, Eblex senior market analyst Debbie Butcher said.

 

"The census figures indicate the national beef breeding herd stabilised over the past year," she said. "However, an apparent rise in slaughtering of both heifers and cows suggests this is likely to be a temporary position.

 

"Despite recent store cattle returns improving the sector's optimism, high feed costs, a shift in the balance of cow and sheep numbers and competition from arable enterprises means a decline in the suckler herd is anticipated in 2011 when final figures are confirmed, with numbers returning to 2009 levels by the end of this year."

 

The census figures also showed that the dairy herd has fallen by around 1.5% and Eblex expects a further reduction this year.

 

Butcher said: "Although calf registrations were marginally higher in 2011 than the previous year, high cereal prices had a clear impact on demand, with registered pure bred dairy bull calf births lower year-on-year.

 

"Any rises in cereal prices are considered likely to dampen dairy bull calf demand despite the attractiveness of the current finished market."

 

The market is likely to be boosted by a combination of tight domestic supplies coupled with "relatively low" levels of imports in 2012. And exports are again predicted to be "relatively high" due to continued firm demand from continental Europe.

 

Butcher said: "Strong export demand is predicted for manufacturing beef, in particular, helping to support the cull cow trade alongside UK prime beef markets, despite any fall-off in domestic consumption as a result of further pressures on household budgets."