February 29, 2012

Russia's grain export forecast for the 2011/12 crop year has been raised by Agriculture Minister Yelena Skrynnik by 12% to as much as 28 million tonnes, news agency reported on Tuesday (Feb 28).

"Deliveries of Russian grain to the world market are being set in the amount of 27-28 million tonnes," she was quoted as saying at roundtable talks during the Russian Agrarian Forum in Ufa.

Last week Skrynnik said Russian grain exports would reach 25 million tonnes during this crop year.

The new maximum forecast tonne slightly exceeds a previous estimate by Russia's first deputy prime minister Viktor Zubkov, who is in charge of agriculture. Based on that figure, he said, he saw no need for grain export restrictions in April.

Russia has helped to drive world wheat prices in early 2012 due to speculation about a duty that would limit exports and on concerns that frosts could damage Black Sea crops.

Russian grain prices are likely to be held in check as the market discusses possible government intervention while ice in ports still hampers loadings, analysts said on Monday.

On July 1, 2011 Russia lifted a ban on grain exports, which had been in force since August 15, 2010 to curb rising domestic prices after the worst drought on record. The government promised to regulate exports via duties in the future.

In 2012/13 the country is expected to maintain export volumes of wheat and grain and may increase its grain output from last year when it harvested 94 million tonnes of grain.