February 29, 2012

As export bans and supply uncertainties lead the South Asian nation to diversify its sources, Bangladesh's 2012-13 wheat imports are forecast at three million tonnes, the USDA's Dhaka attaché said in a report released Tuesday (Feb 28).

The public sector is likely to import 700,000 tonnes of wheat, as 2.3 million tonnes arrive through private commercial sales, the USDA said, with domestic wheat production forecast to reach 1.2 million tonnes, assuming continued normal weather conditions.

Bangladesh meets around 75% of its wheat consumption needs through imports, the USDA said, while recent export bans and tight supplies have seen it turn to the EU, Argentina and Brazil for wheat purchases. The country traditionally sources lower quality wheat from India, Russia and Ukraine, with higher quality wheat coming from Canada, Australia and the US

Large carryover stocks mean that Bangladesh's wheat imports for 2011-12 are estimated at 2.8 million tonnes, 26% lower than the previous year, the USDA said. The private sector imported in excess of domestic demand during 2010-11, leading to a slower pace in private commercial sales during the first half of 2011-12.

However, the USDA said there are recent indications of private wheat imports gaining momentum and speculation that they may exceed two million tonnes by the end of the year.

Bangladesh's 2011-12 wheat crop is estimated at 1.1 million tonnes from 400,000 hectares of land, the USDA said, assuming favourable weather conditions. While planted area increased in response to higher prices, limited land availability and significant competition from other crops like rice, corn, potato and winter vegetables restricts further expansion.