February 28, 2005

India's wheat production seen higher at 74 million tonnes

Wheat production for the marketing year (MY) 2005/06 (April-March) is forecast at 74 million tonnes, 2 million tonnes higher than the 2004 production, but 2.4 million tonnes below the 2000 record production of 76.4 million tonnes.

According to Global Agriculture Information Network (GAIN), most of the increase is expected in the state of Madhya Pradesh. Despite favorable planting conditions, wheat-planted area is estimated to have shrunk marginally to 26.3 million hectares due to the diversion to the less irrigation intensive and more remunerative rapeseed crop.

The cool January temperatures combined with isolated winter rains provided healthy growing conditions, which should result in a higher yield, estimated at 2,814kg/ hectare (2,707 kg per hectare). However, a sudden rise in February temperatures or untimely rains at harvest time, could affect crop size and quality.

The government has adequate supplies of fertilizers and other farm inputs. Irrigation availability this year is also a shade better than last year. Almost 88% of the wheat-planted area has assured irrigation facilities, making it less dependent on rains.

The quality of this year's crop will largely depend on the weather conditions from mid-February through harvest in mid-April. A sudden temperature rise in February, accompanied by warm westerly winds, would cause grain shriveling; rains at harvest time could result in high moisture level and luster loss.