February 28, 2005

 

 

2005/06 outlook for US wheat supply, demand

 

The US Department of Agriculture released its first projections for US wheat supply, demand and price for the 2005-06 marketing year Friday at its Annual Outlook Forum.

 

The following table outlines USDA's projections for wheat supply, demand and price for 2005-06 as well as forecast for 2003/04 and 2004/05.

 

                                           2003/04      2004/05     2005/06

                                                1/            2/

Area planted (mil. acres)          62.1          59.7          58.0

Area harvested                        53.1         50.0          49.3

 

Yield (bu./acre)                        4.2x         43.2          42.3

 

Production (mil. bushels)         2,345        2,158        2,085

 

Beginning Stocks                     491          546           558

Imports                                   63            65            65

Supply                                  2,899        2,770        2,708

 

Feed and Residual                  207           200           175

Food, seed and Industrial        987           987           987

Total Domestic Use                1,193        1,187        1,162

 

Exports                                1,159        1,025         975

 

Total Use                              2,353       2,212        2,137

Ending Stocks                        546          558           571

Stocks/Use                           23.2%      25.2%      26.7%

 

Farm Price ($/Bushel)             3.40         3.38         3.20

                                              3/

 

1/ Forecast. 2/ Projected 3/Midpoint of forecast range.

 

Source: USDA