February 28, 2005

US wheat production to fall 3 percent in 2005

US 2005-06 wheat production will fall 3 percent to 2,085 million bushels, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

The drop is said to be driven by lower acreage figures. USDA said wheat acreage, which has been trending downward gradually, is expected to drop 1.7 million acres in 2005 to 58.0 million acres, which would be the lowest since 1972.

The largest decline is explained by the lower winter wheat seeded area last fall because of heavy precipitation. Spring wheat acreage is expected to remain almost unchanged year-to-year at 16.4 million acres.

Winter wheat acreage of 41.6 million acres is the lowest since 2001. USDA said soft red winter wheat acreage that borders the lower Mississippi and the Ohio rivers is down 1.5 million acres in 2005, and the lowest in the 97 years in the National Agricultural Statistics Service online Agricultural Statistics Data Base.

The lower seedings are seen partly offset by an assumed increase in the harvested-to-planted ratio (based on 10-year average). Trend yield is 42.3 bushels per acre, down 0.9 bushels from 2004 when excellent weather pushed up spring wheat yields, said USDA.