February 27, 2006

China unlikely to meet grain demand even by 2010

Though annual grain production in China is hoped to hit a record 520 million tonnes by 2010, rising consumption will still result in a supply shortfall, announced the State Council Development Research Centre's (DRC) Market Economy Research Institute on Feb 23.

Consumption is expected to surge to 550 million tonnes in 2010--or at least 2 million tonnes annually--as the population reaches 1.35 billion, the institute's deputy chief Cheng Guoqiang said. The country may thus need to import about 20 million tonnes of grain by then, which is the last year of its 11th Five-Year Plan.

Cheng pointed out that "a drop of 1 percentage point of China's grain output means extra imports of nearly 5 million tonnes or 2.5 per cent of the world's total grain trade volume".

Another top governmental official, Minister of Agriculture Du Qing-lin said the country aims to improve per-unit yield to reach 4.88 tonnes, compared with an average of 4.42 tonnes in the period 2001-05.

As such, China will from this year launch a "grain production capacity enhancement programme" which includes measures to support to the agricultural sector, protect farmland, stabilise crop acreage, and improve quality of arable land.

However, as grain output also depends on crop acreage, which is unlikely to expand by a big margin in the years ahead, the country's total grain output is not expected to surpass 520 million tonnes by 2010, the DRC said.